Let's say you're a GM in need of a particular position. You really like a certain player but are unsure if he'll still be on the board when your team is on the clock. How far would you need to trade up to be sure? What if you're a GM with a high pick and would be willing to trade down if you're still assured of getting the player you want? How far down could you trade and still get your guy? What if you're not a GM and just a fan of team and hope a great player falls to their pick?
The Draft Day Predictor tool can answer those questions. It estimates the chance each player will be selected at each pick number, which also lets us know the chance each player will still be on the board at each pick number. The Predictor will be updated as we approach the Draft, and it will update live during the first and second rounds.
The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.
The Predictor offers multiple ways to analyze its results. One way is from the perspective of a player. For example, below is what the Player page might look like if you're interested in Kayvon Thibodeaux. The first chart (in red) shows the chance he will be selected at each relevant pick number. The second chart (in blue) shows the chance he will still be available to be selected at each pick number. You can use the Positions drop down to help find the players you want.
The second way to analyze the results is through the perspective of a certain pick number. From this perspective the two charts work just as they do on the player page. If, for example, you're a Jets fan, the first (in red) indicates each player's chance to be taken at the 4th pick, and the second (in blue) indicates each player's chance of still being available. Use the menu on the Pick page to select your pick and filter the players.
We've ommitted results where it's obvious a player will still be on or off the board based on his overall ranking. That way, we're only displaying the most relevant data points, and there won't be hundreds of bars on each chart. So if a pick number isn't displayed, it doesn't necessarily mean there's a 0% chance to be taken or be available there.
We hope you find this tool interesting and useful, and enjoy the Draft!